July 25, 2004
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Unlike Mike, Part II
The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is coming to town tomorrow. At Soul Food, someone warned me not to carry a briefcase, since it’s liable to get inspected. Traffic will be a nightmare in the city. Fortunately all of my meetings this coming week are in or north of Cambridge.
The DNC also gets me thinking about my one vote: the paradox between the futility and impotence of casting a single vote vs. the civic duty of doing it anyway, because if no one voted… In such situations, I tend to look for an OOB (Out Of the Box) solution that will have greater impact. For instance, I might try to campaign hard for one candidate on this xanga site. Or I could make a pact: “I don’t vote for my candidate and you don’t vote for yours, so it evens out.” And do it with a hundred of my opponents. [evil grin] But no matter how I slice it, I don’t see how I can influence more than at most a few hundred votes.
I would have to be Michael Moore to influence a significant number of votes. Ever wonder just how significant? It’s hard to measure, but we can pull a McKinsey and estimate with rough numbers: As of this week, Fahrenheit 9/11 grossed $103M. Say an average of $7 per ticket, averaging in matinees and high-price (NYC) and low-price (Midwest) theaters. That’s about 15M tickets sold. Say 1M of those were repeat viewers, so 14M unique viewers. If a net 1-in-7 viewers turned against Bush, that’s 2M potential voters, or about 1% of the eligible voter population, 2% of the actual voter population. That’s enough to swing a vote. But… I’m not like Mike.
I also have a hard time believing that one candidate is absolutely better than the other. Currently I slightly favor Kerry, but that could change next week with a skeleton-in-the-closet news revelation. Currently — with 20/100 hindsight — I also think that the war in Iraq was unjustified. But maybe Bush’s best advisors did see a significant possibility of WMD development and felt it necessary to flex on potential terrorists. Not what I would have done, but who knows if it was the best course of action in the end?
So it comes down to casting a vote that won’t change anything, for something or someone I’m not sure I believe in. But in the end I’ll vote regardless. Because individual vote is the backbone of democracy, and that’s the best system we have. Already power is concentrated in the hands of the rich and entrenched. All we have to dislodge them or at least keep them honest is to be informed and vote. That’s an option given to everyone, and your name doesn’t have to rhyme with Ike.
Comments (4)
don’t get me started on the iraq stuff. but i will say that the more important reason to vote is to tally up for the various constituencies that you’re a part of. that, politicians look at VERY closely, down to the block you live on. so, for instance, being asian-american, if you vote one way, it’ll give asian-americans more influence. it might influence congressional redistricting, also.
every vote counts. not to get religious – but it’s like prayer. sometimes you think, god or the universe can’t possibly hear or receive EVERY prayer or wish. but he/it does. every prayer counts. it’s the action of you doing something, putting it out into the universe that counts. non-action is just non-action; no moving forward; no contribution from you. and who wants to live in a world where you have no contribution? oh yeah, def vote for kerry.
Hey Ed… I’m not politically involved… for many reasons you probably already know… but regarding the Michael Moore film… from my experience, the folks who go to see it are already Democrat leaning… so I’m not sure your numbers would properly assess his impact.
Altoz, that’s a great answer — thanks! You know so much, even about non-computer stuff!
The 1-in-7 is a total guess, but accounts for the “preaching-to-choir” democrats who go see it.